{
  "strategy": "QQQ Defensive (moderate risk level, v3.3 live configuration)",
  "initial_capital": 25000.0,
  "window_start": "2021-05-07",
  "window_end": "2026-06-30",
  "years": 5.15,
  "method": "11-fold out-of-sample walk-forward, models refit on each training slice only, hourly bars, real ETF quotes",
  "costs": {
    "commission_per_trade_usd": 0,
    "round_trip_spread_bps": {
      "QQQ": 1,
      "QLD": 4,
      "TQQQ": 4,
      "SGOV": 1.5
    },
    "total_cost_paid_usd": 1997.41,
    "fills": 2664,
    "annualized_turnover_x": 104.32
  },
  "qqq_basic": {
    "final_nav": 48477.73,
    "total_return_pct": 93.91,
    "cagr_pct": 13.73,
    "max_drawdown_pct": -15.01,
    "sharpe": 1.048,
    "calmar": 0.91,
    "sortino": 1.08
  },
  "qqq_buy_and_hold_same_dates": {
    "final_nav": 54917.15,
    "total_return_pct": 119.67,
    "cagr_pct": 16.52,
    "max_drawdown_pct": -36.83,
    "sharpe": 0.788,
    "calmar": 0.45
  },
  "calendar_year_returns_pct": {
    "qqq_basic": {
      "2021": 17.8,
      "2022": -3.4,
      "2023": 22.3,
      "2024": 10.7,
      "2025": 4.5,
      "2026": 20.6
    },
    "qqq_buy_and_hold": {
      "2021": 18.7,
      "2022": -33.0,
      "2023": 53.7,
      "2024": 24.8,
      "2025": 20.2,
      "2026": 19.8
    }
  },
  "worst_drawdown": {
    "qqq_basic": {
      "peak": "2024-07-10",
      "trough": "2025-06-05"
    },
    "qqq_buy_and_hold": {
      "peak": "2021-11-22",
      "trough": "2022-10-13"
    }
  },
  "average_weights_pct": {
    "QQQ": 35.2,
    "QLD": 8.0,
    "TQQQ": 4.0,
    "SGOV": 52.8
  },
  "risk_levels_same_method": {
    "conservative": {
      "cagr_pct": 10.1,
      "max_drawdown_pct": -12.65,
      "sharpe": 0.946
    },
    "moderate": {
      "cagr_pct": 13.73,
      "max_drawdown_pct": -15.01,
      "sharpe": 1.048
    },
    "aggressive": {
      "cagr_pct": 17.75,
      "max_drawdown_pct": -22.29,
      "sharpe": 0.898
    }
  }
}